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MacroSnaps5 September 2026
No. 56

Africa's population could nearly triple this century while Europe shrinks.

Population of Africa and Europe, 1950 to 2100, UN medium projection. Billions. Africa heads toward roughly 3.9 billion as Europe falls below 0.6 billion.
Africa3.9bn(2100)Europe0.6bn(2100)

Population of Africa and Europe, 1950 to 2100, UN medium projection. Billions. Africa heads toward roughly 3.9 billion as Europe falls below 0.6 billion.

Why this is happening
  • Africa is young and its fertility, though falling, is still well above replacement, so its population keeps compounding for decades.
  • Europe has been below replacement for years; without immigration its numbers slide as deaths outpace births.
  • The result is a vast and widening gap: by 2100 Africa could hold more than six people for every European.
The take

The world's future workers, consumers and migrants will be overwhelmingly African. Demographics are quietly redrawing the map of economic power, and the centre of human gravity is moving south.

Source: UN World Population Prospects (2024)
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The underlying data

MacroSnaps drew this chart. The numbers in it are published by UN World Population Prospects (2024). Their terms, not ours, govern the underlying data.