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MacroSnaps11 July 2026
No. 06

The US is running a crisis-sized budget deficit, with no crisis.

US federal budget deficit versus the euro area (all levels of government), 2000 to 2026. Percent of GDP. Below zero is a surplus.
United States6.5%(2026)Euro area3.0%(2026)

US federal budget deficit versus the euro area (all levels of government), 2000 to 2026. Percent of GDP. Below zero is a surplus.

Why this is happening
  • Both parties have raised spending and cut taxes, and neither will touch the big programmes that drive the gap.
  • Rising interest on the debt now piles on top of the regular shortfall.
  • Because the world keeps buying Treasuries, there is no market pressure forcing a fix, so the deficit just runs.
The take

Deficits this size used to be the emergency lever. Now they are the baseline, which means there is nothing held in reserve for when a real emergency arrives.

Source: CBO, OMB (2026)
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The underlying data

MacroSnaps drew this chart. The numbers in it are published by CBO, OMB (2026). Their terms, not ours, govern the underlying data.